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Consolidation to Continue for a While


Economists believe that the Federal Reserve will continue with its hawkish tone in a bid to fight the elevated inflation. 

Bearish view

  • Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.7000.
  • Add a stop-loss of 0.7150.
  • Timeline: 1-3 days.

Bullish view

  • Set a buy-stop at 0.7125 and a take-profit at 0.7225.
  • Add a stop-loss at 0.7050.

The AUD/USD price remained flat on Monday morning as traders braced for an extremely busy week in the financial market. It was trading at 0.7110, the highest point since August 15. It has been in a remarkable rally amid a plunge of the US dollar.

Fed decision and NFP data

There will be no economic data from Australia and the United States on Monday. Therefore, the pair is reacting to the new consumption push by Beijing and the upcoming events from the United States and Australia.

According to the Financial Times, Beijing has embarked on a strategy to boost the economic recovery after the economy slowed sharply in 2022. As part of this strategy, the government wants to boost consumer spending and manufacturing. These measures could have an impact on the Australian economy because of the volume of goods that the country ships.

The main mover of the AUD/USD price will be the upcoming interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve that is scheduled for Wednesday. This will be an important decision being the first one of the year. It will also set the tone of what to expect for the next few months.

Economists believe that the Federal Reserve will continue with its hawkish tone in a bid to fight the elevated inflation. Recent numbers, including the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) that came out on Friday, showed that inflation was easing. The headline CPI dropped to 6.5% in December and has inched downward in the past six straight months.

The other important economic data to watch will be consumer confidence, which are scheduled for Tuesday. These numbers are expected to show that confidence continued rising as consumers reacted positively to falling inflation. Finally, the US will publish the latest non-farm payrolls (NFP) data on Friday.

AUD/USD forecast: daily chart

The chart shows that the pair has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few days. It has moved above the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level and the ascending black trendline. The pair is also forming what looks like a golden cross, which happens when the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are making a bullish crossover.

Therefore, in the medium term, the pair will likely continue rising as buyers target the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement point at 0.7355.


AUD/USD 4H chart

On this chart, we see that the pair has also been in an upward trend in the past few weeks. It is between the dots of the parabolic SAR indicator. The pair is also hovering near the upper side of the ascending channel shown in black and is slightly above the 25-day moving average. Therefore, the pair could retrace some of the gains as sellers aim for the psychological level at 0.700.



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