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The Price is in Free Fall


Natural gas prices fell sharply on forecasts of milder weather, easing fears of further drawdowns from gas inventories.

  • Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) fell during their early trading on Monday.
  • It recorded daily losses until the moment of writing this report by -5.38%, to settle at $2.865 per million British thermal units, after rising by 0.60% during Friday’s trading.
  • It broke a series of losses that lasted for three consecutive days.
  • During the past week, the price fell for the sixth week in a row, by -6.89%.

Natural gas prices fell sharply on forecasts of milder weather, easing fears of further drawdowns from gas inventories.

In the US prices were under pressure due to seasonally high production and weak consumption, as well as mild weather, production has held near 100 Bcfd over the past week, within 2 Bcfd of record levels.

In addition, the 2.38 bcfd Freeport LNG facility that has been shut down since a fire in June was expected to return to service in late 2022, but has not yet been restarted due to regulatory delays. Already approved by authorities in recent days to begin the restart process, it remains unclear when it will return to full capacity, leaving domestic gas demand that the facility will generate off the table in the heart of winter.

In Europe, support may come from the Norwegian gas network announcing more unplanned disruptions, while losses in Europe affected LNG markets in North Asia. However, low prices continue to attract buyers into the market, for example, Bangladesh is reported to have sought to LNG shipments were discovered for the first time in eight months.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Technically, natural gas continues its decline amid the dominance of the main bearish trend in the short term and along a trend line, as shown in the attached chart for a period of time (daily). Negative pressure continued for its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50-day period, in addition to that we notice the presence of negative signals with the relative strength indicators, despite reaching oversold areas.

Therefore, our expectations indicate a further decline for natural gas during its upcoming trading, especially as long as it stabilizes below 3.098, targeting the 2.432 support level.

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