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NASDAQ 100 Forecast: Overtakes the 200-Day EMA


If the Federal Reserve raises rates by 50 basis points, that might be enough to shock the market back down, but between now and then it will all be about the narrative and the rumors whispered on Wall Street as they try to get in front of the announcement. 

  • The NASDAQ 100 has shot straight in the air during the trading session on Friday, as we have overtaken the 200-Day EMA.
  • By doing so, it looks as if the market is ready to go much higher, and very well could for the next couple of days. However, we will have to pay very close attention to the market on Wednesday, and the way it reacts to Chairman Powell.
  • After all, we have the FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting going on, and a lot of the future direction could come down to whether the market believes that he is going to be hawkish going forward.
  • At this point, I really don’t know what else the man can do to convince Wall Street, but it’s his fault and the rest of the Federal Reserve’s for coddling traders for the last 14 years. This is the mess that they have created.
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Momentum is a funny thing because it can go on much longer than you anticipate. Whether or not that ends up being the case remains to be seen, but I do think that we’ve got a situation where the Federal Reserve is going to have to do everything it can to kill momentum.

All the Momentum is to the Upside

After all, if asset prices continue to strengthen, that’s going to have a negative influence on what the Federal Reserve is trying to do, which of course is drive down consumption. People feel rich, they’re not necessarily going to stop spending. This spending is driving the massive amount of inflation that we have seen, and therefore something must be done about that.

We do take off to the upside, the 12,500 level would be the next major target, followed by the 13,000 level. Quite frankly, this is going to be an interesting show of psychology as we will have to figure out what the market is going to do in reaction to what he says, which I can almost guarantee won’t be dovish. If the Federal Reserve raises rates by 50 basis points, that might be enough to shock the market back down, but between now and then it will all be about the narrative and the rumors whispered on Wall Street as they try to get in front of the announcement. It’s nonsense of course and it’s almost impossible to trade, but at this point, it looks like all the momentum is to the upside.

NASDAQ 100

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