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Tests of Speculative Range before Significant Data


Traders should not get comfortable with the USD/JPY range which has been maintained. Volatility is likely to develop before and after the U.S. GDP results are published later today.

The USD/JPY has produced a rather wide test of its short-term range this week as speculators await important U.S GDP statistics coming later today and inflation data tomorrow.


The yen is a popular asset during turbulent times.

The USD/JPY is trading near the 129.550 ratios as of this writing, and as always readers are urged to check the market price as a comparison to get an idea about developing behavioral sentiment. Technically the USD/JPY has produced a middling price range when a five-day chart is used, and the perception speculators may come away with is a sense the currency pair is lingering. Fundamentally financial houses are anticipating today’s U.S Gross Domestic Product readings.

The low for the USD/JPY was seen on Monday when the Forex pair traded near 129.050. Intriguingly when the USD/JPY was selling off rather quickly this morning, this low was approached again but was not able to be penetrated lower. On Thursday of last week, the USD/JPY was trading near the 128.350 ratios as a point of reference. This week’s high was achieved on Tuesday when the USD/JPY traded above the 131.100 mark before reversing lower.

U.S GDP results will certainly affect the USD/JPY Speculative Landscape

The short-term trading results within the USD/JPY may reflect the belief the currency pair has sold off too aggressively since late October.  Or more importantly, it may simply mean a resting period has happened as financial houses gather more evidence regarding their outlooks for the USD/JPY. If growth data from the U.S. comes in weaker than expected today, this could bolster confidence the U.S. Federal Reserve will have to be less aggressive regarding its interest rate policy.

Fundamentally there is no doubt that over the past year while the U.S. central bank became more hawkish and the Bank of Japan stayed dovish the USD got stronger. However, this cycle appears to be coming to an end. The USD/JPY has certainly confirmed via its bearish trend the past few months that financial houses believe momentum is geared towards selling the currency pair. This morning Japan services data showed that inflation has weakened, which helps reflect the Bank of Japan’s dovish attitude.

USD/JPY Trading Range Tranquil for Now, but Conditions will become Volatile Again

  • Traders should not get comfortable with the USD/JPY range which has been maintained. Volatility is likely to develop before and after the U.S. GDP results are published later today.
  • Tomorrow key U.S inflation data will be released with the Personal Consumption Expenditures reports.
  • If support near the 129.250 level falters and the 129.000 ratio starts to be challenged this could point towards another selloff developing for the USD/JPY.

What has felt like a consolidated range the past few days for speculators are likely to vanish in the next handful of hours. The near-term for the USD/JPY is going to become rather speculative and after the dust settles, if U.S data proves to be weaker than expected this could spark additional USD/JPY selling. On the other hand, if growth numbers are strong via the GDP reading, the currency pair could see another test of the 130.000 vicinities abruptly. The bearish trend for the USD/JPY has been strong and financial houses will want to see a re-confirmation of their economic outlooks today and tomorrow.

USD/JPY Short-Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 129.810

Current Support: 129.240

High Target: 130.320

Low Target: 128.850


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