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Index Dances Around a Major Trend Line


Signs of exhaustion could be sold into, but a break above that 200-Day EMA cannot be ignored.

The NASDAQ 100 Index has pulled back ever so slightly during the trading session on Tuesday, as we continue to dance around the downtrend line that we have been paying close attention to for some time. We have technically broken above it, but then pulled back to test it for potential support. Ultimately, whether or not that holds is a completely different question and of course we are in the midst of earnings season. Earnings season obviously has a major influence on how indices behave, so I think you will have to be very cautious, because we have major technology companies reporting at the end of the session.

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Potential Trend Change Ahead?

On a breakdown, I think we could look at this as a potential move down to the 50-Day EMA just waiting to happen. The 50-Day EMA of course is an area where we have seen action previously, and an indicator that a lot of people pay close attention to. If we were to break down below the 50-Day EMA, then it’s possible that we could see the more of a flush lower, perhaps a run down to the 10,650 level, an area where we have bounced from 3 different times. That obviously would be a very negative turn of events, but it would not be overly surprising, considering just how negative a lot of the earnings calls are going to be.

Furthermore, we also have the 200-Day EMA sitting above, and that could offer a significant amount of resistance. That being said, if we were to break above there, then it would obviously be a massive signal of bullish pressure, and therefore you have to look at this through the prism of a potential trend change. The fun thing about Wall Street is that they will almost always, was some type of narrative, and they seem hell-bent on the idea that the Federal Reserve is not going to remain tight. I don’t necessarily believe that, but this is not the time to be arguing with the market.

This has been a nice bounce, but it still hasn’t changed the trend quite yet. It seems as if Wall Street is far ahead of itself, but that doesn’t mean you should be fighting it. Signs of exhaustion could be sold into, but a break above that 200-Day EMA cannot be ignored.

Nasdaq 100 Chart

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