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Euro is Still Ripe for a Bearish Break


The EUR/USD price has been dropping in the past few days as focus shifts to the upcoming FOMC minutes. 


Bearish view

  • Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit to 0.9540.
  • Add a stop-loss at 0.9850.
  • Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish view

  • Set a buy-stop at 0.9766 and a take-profit at 0.9900.
  • Add a stop-loss at 0.9650.

The EUR/USD price continued dropping in the overnight session as traders waited for the upcoming FOMC minutes. It dropped to a low of 0.9678, which was much lower than last week’s high of 1.000.

FOMC minutes and US inflation data

The EUR/USD price has been dropping in the past few days as focus shifts to the upcoming FOMC minutes. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the latest producer price index (PPI) data.

Economists expect the data to show that the headline PPI rose from -0.1% to 0.2% in September. On a year-on-year basis, analysts expect that the PPI dropped from 8.7% to 8.4%.

Excluding the volatile food and energy products, analysts expect that PPI rose by 7.3% and by 0.3% on a MoM basis. These numbers will come a day ahead of the official consumer inflation data. Economists believe that inflation eased slightly in September.

On a positive side, data published by the New York Fed said that consumer expectations dropped to 5.4%, which was the lowest figure this year. The figure peaked at 6.8% in June and has been falling as the average gas price eased. However, the survey showed that household spending will increase by 6% in 2023, a steep decline from the previous estimate of 7.8%.

The EUR/USD pair will react to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes that will come out on Wednesday. These minutes are expected to show that the bank will continue hiking interest rates in the coming months. Economists believe that the bank will hike rates by 75 basis points in November followed by 0.50% in December.

The other important data to watch on Wednsday will be the upcoming mortgage data, European industrial production data and a speech by Christine Lagarde.

EUR/USD forecast

The EUR/USD pair has been in a bearish trend in the past few days. It has dropped below the important level at 0.9866, which was the lowest level on September 6 of this year. The pair has moved below all moving averages.

The pair moved below the standard pivot point while the MACD has moved below the neutral point. Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the next key support level at 0.9540, which is the second support of the standard pivot point.

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