Middle of Near-Term Range as Risks Shadow Price

The USD/ZAR has come off of highs seen in the middle of last week and has been able to develop a rather polite bearish stance, but traders need to remain alert

The USD/ZAR as of trading this morning is near the 18.79110 level, but it needs to be noted today is a banking holiday in South Africa so there will be only light transactional volume and traders are urged to be careful. However, there are interesting things to look at regarding the USD/ZAR as it gets ready for tomorrow’s price action which is certain to be intriguing early and continue in the days ahead. The USD/ZAR can be traded today, but volumes will be light and leave the currency pair vulnerable to sudden volatility.

The USD/ZAR reached a high of nearly 19.33700 on early Wednesday last week, this after trading around lows around the 18.43000 ratio on Tuesday. Risk adverse trading developed as financial institutions prepared for the U.S Federal Reserve announcement. The Fed kept its interest rate policy in place on Wednesday, but it clearly outlined a plan which will likely include another interest rate hike – potentially in November.

However, on Thursday and Friday of last week the USD/ZAR managed to find selling momentum. The close going into the weekend brought the USD/ZAR back to the middle of its one week technical values. And as full volume trading gets ready to start tomorrow following the celebrations of South Africa’s Heritage Day which was officially yesterday, but is turned into a long weekend, speculators should brace for the middle ground of current one week technical values to falter.

Global financial markets will be trading in force today and set up the potential for a reaction to whatever happens in other spheres outside of South Africa tomorrow. Broad market nervousness in the major equity indices is shadowing the U.S market before it opens today. A combination of risk events loom which could cause Forex rather intense reactions over the few days and volatility will develop.

Speculators who are looking at the current price level of the USD/ZAR as oversold, considering that global financial institutions may turn more risk adverse over the coming days cannot be faulted. Traders speculating on their insights regarding the prospects for potential behavioral sentiment need to practice risk management.

• The USD/ZAR under the 18.80000 level in the short-term looks oversold, and when the currency pair resumes full volume trading tomorrow the opening of the USD/ZAR should inspected.
• If the USD/ZAR quickly goes above the 18.90000 and sustains this higher price, the 19.00000 could be challenged.
• Incremental trading will take place today in the USD/ZAR but sudden bursts could develop.
• Traders need to practice caution if they choose to participate because volumes are likely to be extremely light the next twenty hours.

Current Resistance: 18.83100

Current Support: 18.78100

High Target: 19.04600

Low Target: 18.72400

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