S&P 500 Forecast: Waits for Jerome Powell

As the market wrestles with these uncertainties, it is imperative to remain vigilant and attentive to upcoming events, particularly Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and the ensuing press conference.

• The early hours of Tuesday bore witness to a relatively tranquil S&P 500, with no substantial economic data driving market movements throughout the day.
• Consequently, it comes as no surprise that the S&P 500 remained relatively subdued, especially with significant events later in the week looming on the horizon.
• The immediate focus now centers on Tuesday’s proceedings, featuring the FOMC meeting and, notably, the pivotal interest rate decision.
• However, the spotlight is likely to shift towards the subsequent press conference, where investors will scrutinize the Federal Reserve’s future plans.

At present, a noteworthy debate revolves around the potential for further interest rate hikes and the duration of the ongoing tight monetary policy. This debate holds substantial influence over investor sentiment toward the S&P 500. Moreover, the market is showing signs of potentially forming a rising wedge pattern, adding an additional layer of intrigue to the situation. Friday’s trading session introduced a sizable candlestick, hinting at the possibility of a downward move to close the gap that originated last week.

Reinforcing the argument for targeting the bottom of the gap is the presence of the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average in the same vicinity. A breach below this critical level would indeed signify a negative development, potentially opening the door to a descent toward the 4400 level or even the 200-Day EMA.

From a broader perspective, the S&P 500 appears to grapple with a cloud of uncertainty. However, the trajectory of much of the market hinges on the developments during Tuesday’s press conference led by Jerome Powell. It’s worth noting that the Fed Funds Futures indicator currently suggests a mere 3% chance of interest rate hikes during the ongoing Tuesday meeting. Nevertheless, looking forward, the odds appear to favor rate hikes.

As the market wrestles with these uncertainties, it is imperative to remain vigilant and attentive to upcoming events, particularly Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and the ensuing press conference. These developments are poised to wield significant influence over market sentiment and direction. In this environment characterized by heightened ambiguity, adaptable and prudent strategies become pivotal in navigating the current landscape of the S&P 500. Keep in mind that much of the S&P 500’s movements are a response to monetary and options flows, with fundamentals temporarily taking a back seat and technical analysis potentially entering the picture.

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