TRY/USD Forecast: Turkish Retail Sales Increased

The pair is expected to record some limited gains as long as it settles within the ascending price channel range. 

Risk 0.50%.

• Entering a buy deal with a pending order from the 25.35 level.
• Place a stop loss closing point below the 24.95 level.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit as the price moves by 50 points.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 points and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance level at 27.00.

• Entering a sell deal with a pending order from the 27.00 level.
• The best points to place a stop loss are closing the highest level of 27.65.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit as the price moves by 50 points.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 points and leave the rest of the contracts until the support level of 25.70.

The USD/TRY stabilized, recording slight changes within a limited range during Wednesday’s trading. Investors followed Turkish retail sales data, as the Turkish Statistical Office revealed that retail sales recorded an increase on an annual basis during the month of August, reaching 31% compared to 28.5%. % during the same month last year, while retail sales recorded a monthly increase of 2.7% compared to -0.1% during July. At the same time, investors followed the statements of Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek, in which he said that his country had raised the daily credit limit for Turkish exporters by 10-fold during the last three months, as part of the state’s plans to pay attention to exports, as Turkey seeks to reduce the deficit in the current and trade account. After negative data was issued at the beginning of the week, the size of the current account deficit expanded to exceed five billion dollars, a number that exceeds expectations.

It is noteworthy that until now, the shift in monetary policy in the country has not reflected the hoped-for improvement, with a succession of negative data, especially regarding inflation, which represents a priority for Erdogan’s ruling regime, which aims to reduce the inflation rate to single digits. According to analysts, pressures on the lira’s price continue, especially due to the market’s skepticism about the shift made by Erdogan regarding monetary policy, as the markets view that shift as temporary.

On the technical level, the USD/TRY recorded limited declines, as the pair reached its movement within the boundaries of the ascending price channel on the 60-minute time frame shown in the chart, within the general upward trend, as the pair retested the lower border of the larger ascending price channel on the frame. The four-hour time frame, broke earlier last month after settling within it over several weeks.

Currently, if the pair goes up, it targets the resistance levels concentrated at 27.27 and 27.50, respectively, while if the pair declines, it targets the support levels concentrated at 26.50 and 26.13, respectively. The price is moving above the 50, 100, and 200 moving averages on the daily time frame, while the pair is trading between these averages on the four-hour time frame, as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating the divergence that the pair is recording in the short term.

The pair is expected to record some limited gains as long as it settles within the ascending price channel range. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation, while maintaining capital management.

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