Pairs in Focus This Week – GBP/USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD

The British pound has initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but gave back gains rather rapidly. At this point, we are testing a major level, and if we break down below the bottom of the candlestick from the previous week, that could open up and move down to the 1.2350 level. On the other hand, if we turn around a break above the top of the candlestick from the previous week, then it’s likely that we could go looking to the 1.30 level. The market is likely to continue seeing a lot of volatility, but given enough time this market should make a big move.

The euro initially tried to rally during the week as well, but that being said, the market has given back quite a bit of the bullish momentum. The market breaking down below the previous week opens up a move down to the 1.05 level. On the other hand, if we turn around a break above the top of the candlestick for this past week, it would be a destroyed inverted hammer, and that is a strong sign that we are going to go higher. As traders come back from the summer holiday, volumes will pick up and we could see a big move here as well.

The Australian dollar a surge higher during the week, but we continue to see a lot of trouble near the 0.65 level. The 0.65 level is an area where we’ve seen some noise in the past, as it was previous support. At this point, the market would continue to look at that as being important. If we break down below the lows of the last couple of candlesticks, it opens up a move down to the 0.6250 level. On the other hand, if we turn around a break above the top of the candlestick, then we could go look into the 0.66 level, but that seems unlikely at this point in time.

The US dollar has been all over the place against the Japanese yen, but the most prescient part of the week might’ve happened on Friday as we initially plunged, only to see buyers come in and start going along yet again. At this point, we break above the top of the candlestick, then it’s likely that we go to the ¥150 level. On the other hand, we break down below the bottom of the candlestick, then the ¥142.50 level is an area where we would see a lot of support. Buying on pullbacks to pick up value is the way to go going forward as the interest rate differential continues to favor this market.

The euro has gone back and forth during the course of the trading we, as we continue to hang around the 0.85 level as support. We have been going back and forth between the 0.85 level underneath and the 0.87 level above. In general, this is a market that shows that perhaps short-term traders will continue to take advantage of the overall consolidation area that is so clearly marked out on this chart.

The New Zealand dollar initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but the 0.60 level continues to offer resistance. The area previously had been a major support level, and of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. If we break down below not only this candlestick but the one before it, I believe that the New Zealand dollar will plunge toward the 0.57 level, possibly even the 0.55 level. On the other hand, if the market were to break above the top of the week, it’s possible that we could look into the 0.62 level.

The US dollar initially pulled back during the course of the week, only to turn around and show signs of life. We are now threatening the top of the big wipeout candlestick, and it looks like we could go higher over the longer term, at this point, I think short-term pullbacks continue to offer buying opportunities. After all, the 0.8650 level has been a major support level over the longer-term monthly charts. If we break above the 0.89 level, then it’s possible that we could go looking to the 0.90 level which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. If and when we break above there, then it’s likely that the dollar will crush the Swiss franc.

The British pound has gone back and forth during the course of the trading week against the Swiss franc, as we continue to see the 1.10 level offer a massive support level. At this point, I think we probably continue to see a lot of short-term back-and-forth, and I do think that we have to look at this through the prism of trying to figure out where we are going next. If we break down below the 1.10 level, then it’s likely that we could plunge toward the 1.05 level.