Lira is Expected to Record New Declines

The risk is 0.50%.

• Entering a buy order pending order from the 26.50 level.
• Place a stop loss point to close below the 26.25 level.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance level at 27.50.

• Entering a sell order pending order from the 27.50 level.
• The best points to place a stop loss close to the highest level of 27.65.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support level at 26.50.

The USD/TRY  stabilized, trading near new all-time highs. Investors continued to adjust some of the largest global banks to their expectations for the price of the Turkish lira by the end of this year, after negative data about inflation in the country issued during the past week. Inflation rates rose again during the month of July, recording the first rise in several months. Inflation rose to levels of 48 percent compared to 38 recorded during the month of June.

The Governor of the Central Bank of Turkey appeared during the past week, as it announced the bank’s new expectations for inflation data by the end of this year, which were pessimistic compared to previous expectations issued by the previous bank management, as Hafida Ghaya Arkan revealed expectations that inflation in Turkey would be 58 percent. In the meantime, investors followed the modification of both Deutsche Bank and HSBC Bank on their expectations for the price of the lira during the current year in a more pessimistic way.

Deutsche Bank analysts said that the price of the lira may decline against the dollar, to record levels of 32 pounds per dollar by the end of this year, while HSBC Bank modified its expectations for the price of the lira to reach levels of 29 pounds per dollar, compared to levels of 27 pounds in previous expectations. It is noteworthy that the lira tops the list of the worst-performing emerging market currencies since the beginning of this year.

On the technical front, the USD/TRY recorded stability near its highest levels recorded during the past week, around levels of 27.24 liras per dollar. The pair returned to trading within a limited range around the integer levels of 27 liras per dollar. The pair is currently trading within a limited trading range within a general bullish trend.

Currently, the price is trading below other resistance areas concentrated between the levels of 27.24 and 27.50, and the pair is trading above the support levels that are concentrated at 26.50 and 26.00, respectively. The price is moving above the moving averages 50, 100, and 200 on the daily time frame, as well as on the four-hour time frame, while the pair is trading between these moving averages on the 60-minute time frame in a sign of divergence in the short term. The Turkish currency is expected to record some decline. Please adhere to the figures in the recommendation, while maintaining capital management.

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