TRY/USD Forecast: Tourism Revenues Increase

On the technical front, without major changes, the dollar pair against the Turkish lira recorded stability during the early trading this morning.

The risk is 0.50%.

• Entering a buy order pending order from the 26.50 level.
• Place a stop loss point to close below the 26.25 level.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance level at 27.50.

• Entering a sell order pending order from the 27.50 level.
• The best points to place a stop loss close to the highest level of 27.65.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support level at 26.50.

The TRY/USD maintained its stability during early trading this morning. Investors followed data released by the Statistics Authority in Turkey, which revealed an increase in tourism revenues, starting from the second quarter of this year, by 2.3 percent compared to the second quarter of last year. This is primarily due to the decline in the price of the lira, which has become a factor of attraction for foreigners, as the number of tourists increased in the second quarter by 17.2 percent compared to the same period in 2022, to approach 14 million tourists. 

According to official data, 14.5 percent of the proceeds came from Turkish citizens residing abroad. While personal expenditures were close to $10 billion, tourist trip expenses amounted to about $3 billion. Tourism is considered one of the most important sources of foreign income in Turkey, which it relies on to fill the shortfall in the volume of foreign currencies that the country suffers from, at a time when the efforts of the political administration are continuing to amend monetary policy, which aims to attract investors by returning to the traditional economic policy.

In this regard, the latest reports have revealed that the Turkish president had appointed three deputies to the head of the Turkish Central Bank, Hafiza Ghaya Arkan, who is a supporter of the traditional economic theory.

On the technical front, without major changes, the dollar pair against the Turkish lira recorded stability during the early trading this morning, as the pair traded within a limited range around the 27 level, which is the highest level ever recorded by the pair, which it reached during last month’s trading. The pair is currently trading within a limited trading range within a general bullish trend. Currently, the price is trading below other resistance areas concentrated between the levels of 27.12 and 27.50, and the pair is trading above the support levels that are concentrated at 26.50 and 26.00, respectively.

The price is moving above the moving averages 50, 100, and 200 on the daily timeframe, as well as on the 4-hour and 60-minute timeframes, in a sign of the strong bullish general trend. It is expected that the impact of the tightening by the Turkish Central Bank on the price of the lira, which analysts estimated to be around 29 liras per dollar, is expected to be delayed. Please adhere to the figures in the recommendation, while maintaining capital management.

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