Potential Pullback Amid Overstretched Mark

Risk appetite is a key factor to monitor, as it heavily influences the Australian dollar. 

• The AUD/USD has seen a significant rally during Monday’s trading session, pushing toward the 0.68 level.
• However, the market appears to be overstretched, suggesting that a pullback could be imminent.
• This is particularly likely given the market’s sharp rise over the past few weeks and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, which is expected to significantly impact the US dollar.

Risk appetite is a key factor to monitor, as it heavily influences the Australian dollar. The current overextended state of the market could potentially lead to volatility. The 0.68 level above has previously acted as a major barrier, proving difficult to surpass. The rapid ascent to this level makes it even less likely to be breached, as simple momentum will eventually exhaust itself. After all, “Who is left to buy?”

On the downside, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average near the 0.6675 level could offer some support. A breakdown below this level could potentially lead the market toward the 0.66 level, which previously served as the support level for the overall consolidation range. The question now is not whether the Australian dollar is bullish, but whether we have re-entered the previous consolidation area that dominated the market for a significant period.

However, if the 0.68 level is breached, it could pave the way for a move towards the 0.70 level. The Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday could be a wildcard in this scenario, especially if the Fed adopts an extraordinarily dovish stance. It’s worth noting that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently surprised the market with an interest rate hike. However, with most central banks currently maintaining tight policies, except for the Bank of Japan, any drastic market changes would likely require a truly shocking move.

At the end of the day, the Australian dollar’s rally is set against a backdrop of an overstretched market and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. Traders are advised to tread carefully, keeping an eye on key support and resistance levels, and the potential impact of central bank decisions. Despite the current bullish momentum, the market may be on the brink of re-entering a previous consolidation area, and a pullback could be on the horizon. The Federal Reserve’s stance will be a crucial factor in determining the market’s next move.

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