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The USD/TRY remains locked within an upwards climb with its typical volatile results being demonstrated, this as the Turkish election of the 14th of May approaches.
Turkey will conduct a parliamentary and leadership vote on the 14th of May and may face a second round of voting on the 28th of this month depending on this weekend’s results. The race for leadership of Turkey will be watched because of the implications for foreign policy around the world, but also by financial institutions which have seen the USD/TRY trade with a long-term bullish trend because of less than ‘sound’ economic policy.
Traders who are brave enough to take USD/TRY positions before the election this coming Sunday should certainly only be considering short-term positions. Holding a trade over this coming weekend into Monday of next week will be dangerous at best. Speculators who have deep pockets and plenty of experience may be tempted to wager by holding the USD/TRY, but the trading position would have to be considered like going to a casino.
As of this writing the USD/TRY is trading near the 19.54075 ratio with its always volatile results being demonstrated. A high of nearly 1.56725 was briefly seen yesterday, followed by a rather quick thrust downwards. While looking for upside price action in the USD/TRY remains the likely trade of choice because of the long-term bullish trend upwards, violent moves lower can knock small speculators out of a trade quickly because lower moves tend to be abrupt and large. The ability to wager on reversals in the USD/TRY is a bit like a balancing act, trying not to get knocked off a high wire is a constant worry. Risk management is vital.
The USD/TRY is trending higher and has very little correlation to outside forces like U.S. Federal Reserve policy for the moment. The Turkish election looms and a challenge to the current leadership within the nation is being contemplated, but potential results are not guaranteed and the outcome is expected to be close. Traders are likely not to have a definite result after this Sunday’s vote because a runoff election could be needed. Wagering on the USD/TRY remains difficult, particularly if being done with a perspective regarding the potential voting results.
- Short-term trading in the USD/TRY should only be considered by speculators with experience, and risk management is essential.
- The trend higher in the USD/TRY is attractive still, but entry price, stop loss, and take profit orders are the only safe way a day trader should contemplate betting on the currency pair in the short term.
Current Resistance: 19.55540
Current Support: 19.52250
High Target: 19.58300
Low Target: 19.50100
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