Continues to See Bits of Support Underneat

If the market does not drop from here, we may see a recovery from the greenback.

• The USD/JPY experienced a slight dip during Thursday’s trading session, with a lot of movement based on bonds.
• The Bank of Japan continues to practice yield curve control, keeping an eye on the 10-year JGB, with a maximum interest rate of 50 basis points.
• To achieve this, the Bank of Japan must print more yen to buy more bonds, thus keeping interest rates down. As a result, the market has been moving in lockstep with the bond markets.

As rates rise, the US dollar rallies. Conversely, as rates drop, the Japanese yen tends to rally. Lately, the ¥130.50 level down to the ¥130 level has been significant support, making it sensible to see an attempt to stabilize and hold onto that area. The formation of a hammer during the Wednesday session was a positive sign, and Thursday’s candlestick looks very similar.

However, traders should keep in mind that Friday is Good Friday, and Monday is a holiday for most European banks, so liquidity could be an issue over the next few sessions. Nonetheless, the market appears to be attempting to form some type of base, potentially leading to a greenback recovery. Given that the US dollar is currently a bit oversold, the 50-Day EMA could be an initial target on the upside.

If the market does not drop from here, we may see a recovery from the greenback. If the market breaks down below the ¥127.50 level, it could indicate a significant decline. This level has previously seen a significant amount of support, so holding onto it may offer a possibility of a floor in the market.

Ultimately, the US dollar experienced a slight dip during Thursday’s trading session, with movement based on bonds. As the Bank of Japan continues to practice yield curve control, keeping interest rates down by printing more yen to buy more bonds, the market has been moving in lockstep with the bond markets. The market is attempting to form some type of base, potentially leading to a greenback recovery, with the 50-Day EMA as a possible initial target on the upside. However, traders should be mindful of the upcoming bank holidays, and the ¥127.50 level should be closely watched, as it offers a possibility of a floor in the market. All things being equal, this is a market that is trying to make a bigger decision.