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The risk is 0.50%.
- Entering a buy order pending order from the 19.00 level.
- Place a stop loss point to close below the 18.85 level.
- Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
- Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips, and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance level at 19.50.
- Entering a sell order pending order from the 19.50 level.
- The best points to place a stop loss close at the 19.65 level.
- Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
- Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips, and leave the rest of the contracts until the support level at 19.05.
The price of the TRY/USD declined during the end of last week’s trading, as the dollar pair against the lira recorded record high levels, after the Turkish Central Bank’s decision to install the interest rate last Thursday at 8.5%. It seems that the hand of the Turkish Central Bank which controlled the exchange rate of the lira has become weaker than continuing to support the lira, which has recorded successive losses since the earthquake that struck the southwest of the country at the beginning of last month. The central bank had cut the interest rate over several meetings since the end of 2022, bringing interest rates down from 14.5% to 8.5%. Directly or through indirect measures, it seems that the decline in foreign exchange reserves, which was severely affected during the past month, has increased the size of the Central Bank’s ability to maintain the price of the lira, which has been varying against the dollar for several months. The lira’s declines, which are expected to cause a rise in commodity prices and consequently inflation, come at a time when the ruling party is preparing to run in the most difficult elections it has faced over the past twenty years.
On the technical front, the dollar pair against the Turkish lira varied in slight changes during the day’s early trading, the pair settled near its all-time high, recording 19.23, as it traded at 19.08 levels at the time of writing, with the pair failing to record any closing outside the bullish price channel levels on Today’s time frame as of writing, the dollar keeps rising against the lira at a slow pace, as the pair is trading above the support levels at 19.00, 18.90, and 18.80, respectively.
On the other hand, the price is settling below the resistance levels 19.11 and 19.23, which represents the highest price for the pair ever, as well as the pair is trading below the psychological resistance levels at the integer 19.50. The price is moving above the moving averages 50, 100, and 200 on the time frame of today, in a sign of the general bullish trend on the large time frame, while the price is trading between these moving averages on the 60-minute time frame, in a sign of the slow movement of the pair. Because of the divergence in monetary policy and the economic position of Turkey, any fall of the dollar against the lira represents an opportunity to buy back again. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation, while maintaining capital management.
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