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Bitcoin rallies as US Treasury moves to backstop all bank deposits.
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
- Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $21,599 or $20,894.
- Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
- Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $22,797 or $23,629.
- Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
Bitcoin has been selling off from multi-month highs in recent weeks, and it also sold off last week as risk sentiment in markets began to sink on a more hawkish US Federal Reserve and news of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank.
The price began to stabilize below the big round number at $20k, but shot up very strongly following the US Treasury’s announcement together with other agencies including the FDIC that it would act as lender of the last resort, effectively guaranteeing all US bank deposits, even the uninsured once.
The price’s strong rise in recent hours has been not due only due to improved risk sentiment – even though this may well be only temporary – but also because the SVB failure has weakened an already bearish US Dollar, as markets now believe further rate hikes by the Fed to be practically impossibly.
Technically, the price a few hours ago rejected the resistance level at $22,797 and has been consolidating below it since. This looks very likely to be today’s pivotal point.
If the price action continues to present a consolidation below this level and it holds, and then the price action turns more bearish soon after the New York open today, that will suggest the price will be likely to fall further, giving a potential short trade entry opportunity.
If instead we get two consecutive higher hourly closes above $22,797, that will suggest the price will likely continue higher to at least $23,629, potentially giving a long trade entry opportunity.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the US Dollar.
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