Bullish Channel Holds, But Choppy Trading

Keep in mind that the Bank of Japan continues to see the need to drive down interest rates, and therefore they will have to continue to buy 10-year bonds if we have to keep the 50-basis points limit. 

• The AUD/JPY has initially fallen against the Japanese yen but recovered quite nicely during the trading session on Wednesday, after initially dropping close to the 200-Day EMA.
• The 200-Day EMA has a certain amount of appeal to it, and therefore a lot of people will be looking at it. Ultimately, if we can stay above there, then technically we are in an uptrend.
• Whether or not that’s going to be the case for the longer term, remains to be seen.

Having said that, we are at the top of an overall channel, and therefore I think a lot of people will have to look at that as potential resistance. All things being equal, this is a situation where we could see a lot of resistance, and of course, when you look at the ¥93.50 level, you can see that we had seen a bit of selling pressure in that area. That of course means that it is going to be a bit of a fight, but if we can break above there then I think it’s likely that we have the possibility of going much higher. A lot of this probably comes down to the Japanese yen more than anything else.

Seeing Japanese Yen Weakness Across the Board

Keep in mind that the Bank of Japan continues to see the need to drive down interest rates, and therefore they will have to continue to buy 10-year bonds if we have to keep the 50-basis points limit. Every time they buy those bonds, they will print Japanese yen, therefore sending the value of the Japanese yen lower.

If we turn around and break below the bottom of the candlestick, then it’s likely that we could see a drop-down to the 200-Day EMA, perhaps even the 50-Day EMA. The ¥91 level it sits right there, and I think that also offers quite a bit of support. Anything below there then threatens the ¥90 level, but I would not hold my breath for that to happen. After all, we are seeing quite a bit of Japanese yen weakness across the board, so I don’t think that this pair will be a lot different than many others. With that, I think you continue to see plenty of buyers on dips, and eventually, we probably break out above resistance.