Heading Lower Within a Consolidation

Ultimately, this is a situation where you need to be cautious with your position size, but if you use a range-bound system that uses something like a Stochastic Oscillator indicator, you might do well in the time paying attention to those ranges and taking advantage of it. 

• The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has gone back and forth during the trading session on Tuesday, as we are hanging around the 50-Day EMA.
• The 50-Day EMA is relatively flat, and it does suggest that we are more likely than not going to see the consolidation continue.
• At this point, it has been well-defined for a while, and I don’t necessarily think that we are ready to make a bigger move.

On the upside, we have the $82.50 level offering resistance, and therefore it would be a big deal if we broke above there. At that point, I would anticipate that the 200-Day EMA could come into the picture as the next target and of course the resistance barrier. The $85 level above is an area where you would see a lot of noise at. On the other hand, to the downside, we have a significant amount of support near the $72.50 level, as we have been bouncing quite a bit, as we have bounced from there 3 times already.

Noise Ahead

Keep in mind that the crude oil markets have a lot of noise around them, as we continue to see a lot of questions asked about the global supply, as although Russia has recently cut 5% of its global output, the reality is that the bigger concern is probably going to end up being a global economy that is slowing down. At this point, I think you continue to see the market bang around in that region, but eventually, we will have to make a bigger decision. With this being the case, I think the longer-term swing traders will be paying close attention to a breakout or breakdown, but in the meantime, you probably have a lot of short-term traders looking at this as a range-bound market that you can take advantage of.

Ultimately, this is a situation where you need to be cautious with your position size, but if you use a range-bound system that uses something like a Stochastic Oscillator indicator, you might do well in the time paying attention to those ranges and taking advantage of it. There is a lot of noise just waiting to happen, so keep in mind that you are going to see a certain amount of risk.