Testing Potential Support, Looking for Mom

In a bit of irony, we need to see the monetary policy loosen for Bitcoin to truly take off because it is essentially a way to work against currency printing. 

• Bitcoin has fallen a bit during the trading session on Monday, to test the 200-Day EMA.
• The 200-Day EMA is obviously an indicator that a lot of people pay close attention to, and an area we have recently broken above.
• By doing so, the market looks as if it is ready to go higher, but at the same time, we are now testing that potential support again. If we break down below there, then we have the 50-Day EMA, which I think is going to be crucial.

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In a bit of irony, we need to see the monetary policy loosen for Bitcoin to truly take off because it is essentially a way to work against currency printing. If we have a loose monetary policy, then one would have to think that Bitcoin should do well. However, we have recently seen monetary policy tighten across the world, which of course has had a negative correlation to the price of Bitcoin. If money is getting to be much tighter, then we don’t have all this hot money chasing returns anymore. With that being the case, I think you get a situation where Bitcoin is likely to continue to struggle.

Noise Ahead

The $20,000 level underneath should be rather important, so if we were to break down below there, I think a lot of psychology comes into play, and then we see the market truly fall apart. On the other hand, if we turn around and rally from here, I expect to see the $24,000 level offer resistance that extends to the $25,000 level. The $25,000 level is a major barrier that is going to continue to cause issues, and therefore I think if we break above there that would be a major positive sign for Bitcoin, and it would probably drag the rest of the cryptocurrency market with it.

I think given enough time we will have to have a market-wide move, and we are trying to find support for these indicators. If we break down through the moving averages though, it’s very likely that we could continue to go much lower. Ultimately, I think this is a situation where we are still in a huge area of noise.

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