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The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has been very bullish for several months, but as we close out the month of September, we are looking at a fairly significant barrier just above. Because of this, I would not be surprised at all to see the month start off with a little bit of a pullback. That being said, there are plenty of reasons to think that this market has buyers underneath, and therefore I have several levels that I am watching.
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- Underneath, the $80 level is where I see the 50-Week EMA coming into the picture.
- That would be the “floor in the market” at the moment, but I don’t necessarily think we even get that far.
- After all, the $85 level could be a major support level as well, so if we do fall down to that area, I would expect to see buyers jump into the market.
- Another level that I am watching is the top of the candlestick for the end of the month, which is basically near the $95 level. If we were to break above the $95 level, then it opens up a move to the $100 level.
I think all 3 of these levels are worth watching, and they will certainly determine where we go next. The candlestick for the last week of the month looks as if it is forming a shooting star, and that shooting star likely will catch the eye of traders. However, there are plenty of fundamental reasons to think the oil markets will continue to go higher, not the least of which will be the fact that Saudi Arabia and Russia continued to withhold 1 million barrels per day from the market. Physical supply is constrained, and it looks like oil could very well go to the $100 a barrel level.
All of that being said, I think that any short-term pullback that we get should end up being a buying opportunity, and I would anticipate quite a bit of volatility. Because of this, position sizing will be crucial and therefore you need to be cautious about jumping in and buying a massive amount of oil. This is a market that I think continues to be very noisy, so just be prepared for that as you go through the month of October.
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