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The interest rate situation in the United States continues to be very volatile and very strong, and therefore it continues to cause a certain amount of downward pressure on this market overall.
- The NASDAQ 100 initially fell during the trading session on Thursday, but it looks like we continue to see support in the same general vicinity.
- This makes a certain amount of sense because it’s an area that has been important in the past, as the 14,600 level was the most recent swing low.
- We are also between the 50-Day EMA above and the 200-Day EMA underneath.
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The candlestick from the Wednesday session was a hammer, so that of course is something that will have caught the attention of a lot of people. If we were to break down below the bottom of that hammer, it would obviously be a very negative turn of events, perhaps opening a move down to the 200-Day EMA, and then possibly even the 14,000 area. Remember, there are a lot of options at play in this market, so these large figures attract a lot of attention. It looks like we are at least trying to rally, and we will have to keep an eye on the above 14,800 level.
On a break above the 14,800 level, I suspect that the NASDAQ will do everything it can to take off to the outside and go looking to the 50-Day EMA. The 50-Day EMA of course is an indicator that a lot of people pay close attention to, and then after that, we could be looking at the 15,250 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will continue to be full of noise, but it will also be full of concerns. While a bounce could be somewhat expected, the question now is whether people were willing to throw money into stocks. The interest rate situation in the United States continues to be very volatile and very strong, and therefore it continues to cause a certain amount of downward pressure on this market overall. It is due for a short-term rally, so if we were to break above that 14,800 level, we could see a little bit more in the way of momentum pickup.
Potential signal: The NASDAQ 100 is at a major support level, and it is very possible that this could set up a short-term swing trade. Buying here is reasonable, but you have to understand that a move below the 14,400 level opens up a flood of selling. Keep your position size reasonable, but we could see a move to the 14,800 level where I would move my stop loss to breakeven. After that, then we may target the 50-day EMA.
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