Weekly Forecast 24th September-30th September

The days ahead for WTI Crude Oil promise to be rather dynamic as the commodity remains within sight of highs and U.S Gross Domestic Product data is delivered later this week.

WTI Crude Oil went into the weekend slightly below the 90.000 USD mark, but the price of the commodity remains within sight of highs achieved on Tuesday the 19^th of September, which challenged the 92.250 realm. The apex value seen early last week touched prices which had been seen in early November of 2023.

Yes, WTI Crude Oil did traverse below its highs as it went into the weekend, but price remained durable as short-term support near 89.000 seemed to spark renewed buying when it was briefly penetrated a few hours before the commodity market closed. Previous lows last week saw WTI briefly go below 89.000 on Wednesday, and the lowest mark for the week occur on Thursday as Crude Oil traded near the 88.130 ratio for a short time.

WTI Crude Oil Price Remains Stubborn and High

Since trading near lows of around 66.000 USD from March until late June of this year with higher price action also being seen during that time period, producing a high of 84.000 USD in the middle of April, WTI seemed to languish in price until the end of the first week in July. Interestingly this is around the same time period the USD was exhibiting some weakness in Forex. If you are looking for correlations with the USD and WTI Crude Oil, a look at trading since the middle of July shows more ‘coincidences’.

Certainly, oil production cuts by Saudi Arabia which they initiated have helped stabilize the price of WTI. Interestingly too is the ability of the U.S economy to continue to produce growth when many analysts were fairly certain a recession would hit. Demand for WTI Crude Oil has not diminished in the U.S and this is helping generate solid price action. The ability of WTI Crude Oil to remain near the 90.000 USD level the past week is intriguing technically because a sustained selloff has not occurred.

1. This coming Thursday the U.S. will release its Gross Domestic Product results, if the growth numbers come in higher than expected this could spur more speculative buying of WTI Crude Oil.
2. Before the U.S. growth data numbers are released, traders should expect WTI Crude Oil to remain speculatively high and for the 90.000 USD level to potentially be a magnet the first few days of trading this week.

The broad financial markets globally remain fragile and this can be seen via the result of equity indices. However, a lot of the declines in the U.S. equity market are due to financial institutions looking for guaranteed results from U.S. Treasuries. A downturn in the U.S. economy which many expected to happen has not been demonstrated yet.

This Thursday’s GDP numbers will give an opportunity to speculators to solidify their outlooks regarding the prospects for U.S. growth. If U.S. data points to a strong economy, this will quickly be interpreted as a sign that demand for WTI Crude Oil is going to remain steady and it could spark more buying of the commodity.

The speculative price range for WTI Crude Oil is 87.900 to 93.200 USD.

The opening for WTI Crude Oil should be watched on Monday. If the price opens in a steady fashion and remains fixated near the 90.000 it will show underlying buying for the commodity remains strong. A move that exceeds 90.000 and sustains value above the 91.000 level early this week could be speculative in nature and may mean that major players in the energy sector are bracing for better-than-anticipated GDP results, wagering on higher prices to develop.  A sustained move above the 92.000 level this week is likely to spark fresh highs that could surpass last week’s results.

Speculators who believe WTI is overbought and want to pursue downward price action should consider this perception very carefully. The lack of a sustained move downwards and a rather strong trend upwards since early July may not vanish this week. Downside wagers on WTI should look for quick-hitting results. Support near 89.000 would have to be sustained below for more than a day to spark bigger interest in the potential of WTI Crude Oil to suddenly become bearish and test the 88.000 to 87.000 USD values.