Rallies but See Resistance Above

Quite frankly, we would need to see the CPI collapse for that to happen, and I just don’t see how that plays out.

• The AUD/USD has shot straight up in the air during the trading session on Monday, breaking the bank of a lot of sellers over the last couple of days.
• That means that the market is likely to continue to see a lot of short-term upward pressure, but the reality is that we are very much in a downtrend and there is a massive amount of resistance just above that is going to come into the picture.

The 0.65 level is an area that I am watching very closely since it has shown itself to be so resilient as far as selling pressure is concerned. What I find truly interesting about this is that the market is going to get the CPI numbers in the United States on Wednesday, and that could time quite significantly with the move to that level. Furthermore, we also have the 50-day EMA in that area, and that should offer a significant amount of resistance.

Underneath, if we were to break down below the 0.6350 level, then I would be a seller of the Australian dollar, opening the possibility of a move to much lower pricing, perhaps down to the 0.60 level. With this being the case, I think we have a situation where the market will eventually continue to see trading difficulties to the upside, but the short-term move is most certainly anti-dollar. I think at this point, there is a lot of noise due to the Bank of Japan stating over the weekend that they could get away from negative interest rates, so traders are trying to reposition themselves all around. Nonetheless, we are still very much in the markets right now to worry about, so I don’t think that the Aussie is simply going to destroy the US dollar suddenly.

Quite frankly, we would need to see the CPI collapse for that to happen, and I just don’t see how that plays out. Remember, Australia’s also highly levered to China and growth in general, so that all comes into the picture as well. Think of this as a risk barometer, as the Aussie dollar is so highly sensitive to so many different moving pieces. However, we could have a bit of clarity by the end of the week if those CPI numbers are off the mark somehow.

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