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Gold futures decreased as the shortened trading week began due to the American holiday and decreased towards the level of $1950 per ounce. The yellow metal was hit hard amid the strength of the US dollar and rising Treasury bond yields. Despite the negative economic data on Tuesday, gold prices failed to find any support. According to the trades, gold prices XAU/USD have fallen towards the support level of $1925 per ounce and is stable around it at the time of writing the analysis. Despite the performance, gold prices have risen by approximately 7% since the beginning of 2023.
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In the same performance, the prices of silver, which is the sister commodity of gold, fell to less than 24 dollars per ounce. The price of the white metal has decreased by about 1% on an annual basis, although it has risen by 33% during the last twelve months.
In general, the reaction of gold and silver prices was to the rise of the US dollar and the yields of treasury bonds.
The US dollar index (DXY) is a measure of the US currency against a basket of other major currencies advanced to 104.78 and in general the US dollar has achieved an impressive performance this summer, rising by more than 2% in the last month. From the beginning of the year until now, the dollar index DXY has risen by more than 1.2%. In general, the rise in the value of the US dollar is a bad thing for goods priced in dollars because it makes their purchase more expensive for foreign investors.
US Treasury bond market yields rose mostly across the board, with the ten-year bond yield rising by more than nine basis points to 4.268%. And the yield on the two-year bonds rose one basis point to 4.968%, while the yield on the 30-year bonds rose by 8.9 basis points to 4.374%.
Gold is usually sensitive to interest rate movements because it affects the opportunity cost of holding the bullion that does not yield a return.
The commodity may struggle to find a catalyst to initiate a short-term rally. Commenting on the performance, Edward Moya, chief market analyst at OANDA, said: “Global bond yields have risen sharply in all areas, and it seems that there are fears that concerns about global growth may become more dire, and this brings everyone back to the dollar.” And “the global slowdown story will ultimately prove to be positive for gold, and that will only happen when the market becomes more skeptical about the risks of a US recession.”
As for the other metal markets, copper futures settled at $3.822 per pound. Platinum futures fell to $934.10 an ounce. Palladium futures fell to $1220.50 an ounce.
- The recent sales approached the latest first break of the upward channel formed by the gold price XAU/USD recently.
- The bears’ control over the trend will increase if the gold price moves towards the support levels of 1915 and 1900 dollars respectively.
- The last level will bring us back to the support area of 1880 dollars per ounce again.
Until now, I still prefer buying gold to any falling level, despite the strength of the US dollar, but there are other factors that support the purchase of gold, consisting of global geopolitical tensions and fears of a slowdown in global economic growth led by China.
In return, the bulls will regain control over the gold price XAU/USD if it returns to the resistance area of $1945 per ounce again. The upcoming international central bank signals will have an impact on the performance of the gold market in the coming period.
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