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The NZD/USD has tested new long-term lows and its trading results the past week provide lessons that may prove useful.
As of this writing the NZD/USD is traversing near the 0.58950 ratio with price action rather dynamic. Earlier this morning the NZD/USD came within sight of lows reached yesterday which broke below the 0.58600 mark. The prices now being seen in the NZD/USD are touching values not seen since the second week of November 2022. The past week of trading in the NZD/USD has been volatile and is reflecting other major currency pairs teamed against the USD. Traders are learning the hard way to be careful with the NZD/USD.
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Intriguingly, last Friday the NZD/USD did manage to climb and reached above the 0.60000 level and came within sight of 0.60150 before stumbling. Nervous Forex conditions remain abundant and traders looking for a shift in sentiment may have to wait a bit longer. Tomorrow many U.S Federal Reserve members will be speaking at a number of events, but their rhetoric tomorrow is unpredictable. Patience needs to be practiced and sudden price bursts higher than can be sustained have been missing in the NZD/USD.
U.S. economic data from the past couple of weeks have taken on a lackluster framework, but weakness in the USD has not taken place yet as many might have expected. Cautious outlooks continue to be generated in financial institutions and until the U.S. Federal Reserve begins to acknowledge publicly that a change to monetary policy is needed, perhaps the USD will find buyers. However, the weaker U.S. data creates the notion that days like tomorrow, when Fed officials will be asked about their outlooks could spur on changes in perception.
NZD/USD day traders are in a tough spot if they are looking for upside momentum to suddenly flourish. The currency pair does appear oversold and there is reason to suspect a turnaround should take place, but timing when this spectacle happens is a dangerous wager. The ability of the NZD/USD to continue breaking important support levels and challenge long-term lows should be given attention. Betting against trends can be an expensive hobby. The ability of the NZZD/USD to sustain a value below the 0.59000 ratio should be taken seriously and worrisome.
- The 0.58800 mark should be watched, If trading drops below this ratio it could spur on buying of the NZD/USD, but it could also be a warning that yesterday’s lows could be challenged again.
- If the NZD/USD breaks above the 0.59000 level in the short-term this could be interpreted as positive, but sustained trading above the 0.60000 level should take place before traders try to argue a move higher is about to unfold over a solid duration.
- Quick-hitting trades for NZD/USD should be practiced. Tomorrow’s pronouncements via Federal Reserve conferences and attended meetings could cause volatility late on Thursday.
Current Resistance: 0.59020
Current Support: 0.58810
High Target: 0.59290
Low Target: 0.58650
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