BTC/USD Forex Signal: Bearish Consolidation Below $26,140

My previous BTC/USD signal on 14^th August produced a very profitable short trade from the bearish rejection of the resistance level which I had identified at $29,681.

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades must be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.

Long Trade Idea

• Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $24,612.
• Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Ideas

• Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $26,140, $26,329, or $26,906.
• Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

I wrote in my previous BTC/USD analysis that it would not be a surprise if the price turned bearish at its current peak as this area was infective when last reached some hours ago. I also saw short trades as only likely to work out if taken from a reversal at a resistance level above the current price.

This was a good call, as it produced a profitable short trade – very profitable, if left to run.

The technical picture has become considerably more bearish as recent weeks have seen the price make a convincing long-term reversal as it continued to fail to get established above the $30k round number and confluent area of resistance.

Following this bearish reversal, the price began to move down gently within a wide bearish price channel before making a decisive breakdown below that channel in mid-August.

The price has continued to drift lower, reflecting a weakness in Bitcoin even as other risky assets begin to recover, although the US Dollar remains quite strong and is another factor continuing to drive the price down.

The price has now reached an area in which it looks to be comfortable, so I expect sideways trading today with a minor bearish bias.

I see the best opportunity which might set up today to be a short trade from another bearish reversal at the nearest resistance level at $26,140.

Concerning the US Dollar, there will be a release of ISM PMI data at 3pm London time.

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