Move Lower as USD Gains Dubious Short-Term Strength

One of the first rules to learn as a day trader is to acknowledge the market is always right.  Frequently while speculating your perception of what is going to happen can be proven correct, but unfortunately in many cases it simply does not take place within the timeframe being wagered upon. Too much leverage and sudden reversals can wipe out traders. Bullish traders of the NZD/USD the past couple of days have likely found tough trading conditions if they have not been using proper risk management.

Since reaching a high of nearly 0.62720 early last Thursday following in the footsteps of the U.S Federal Reserve’s rather ‘neutral’ FOMC Statement, the NZD/USD has traded lower. However, better-than-expected growth numbers from the U.S. were published late Thursday and the USD began to show strength across Forex. On early Friday the NZD/USD hit a low of nearly 0.61225.

On Monday of this week, the NZD/USD started to climb and touched a high around the 0.62265 ratio, but then the currency pair began to traverse lower.  As of this writing the NZD/USD is trading downwards and is challenging the 0.61000 support level, which is likely making folks with bullish perceptions nervous regarding short and mid-term outlooks. Trading results are often based on pursuing a direction and having the ability to withstand price volatility when a position is open.  

The test of current lows in the NZD/USD is near depths last seen on the 30^th of June. What makes the move lower within the NZD/USD this morning intriguing is that the momentum downwards has occurred as a major rating agency in the U.S. – Fitch – has downgraded U.S Treasury Bonds. This occurred late on Tuesday evening in the U.S., but the USD has not gotten weaker in the short term.  Traders should brace for reactions and reversals in Forex including the NZD/USD potentially, but the move lower in the currency pair looks rather dubious – meaning it needs to be questioned by traders.

• NZD/USD support near the 0.61000 to 0.61050 levels should be watched, if these levels are maintained they could spark a buying signal for some traders who believe the currency pair has been oversold.
• Weak manufacturing numbers came from the U.S. yesterday, and job numbers are on the schedule this coming Friday, including important inflation data via the Average Hourly Earnings statistics.
• Weaker inflation in the U.S. could mean a weaker USD and the potential for upwards movement for the NZD/USD.

Current Resistance: 0.61200

Current Support: 0.61000

High Target: 0.61575

Low Target: 0.60950

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