Looking Weakly Bearish Below $1.1000

Yet short-term support at $1.0985.

My previous EUR/USD signal on 24^th July was not triggered, as none of the key levels were reached that day.

Risk 0.75%.

Trades must be taken before 5pm London time today only. 

• Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.1006, $1.1038, $1.1078, or $1.1089.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

• Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0944.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

In my previous analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair on 24^th July, I wrote that the drop below the former support level at $1.1089 was a bearish sign, so I was looking for a potential short trade from two consecutive lower hourly closes below $1.1070 after New York opens.

This did not quite set up, although I was correct overall to be looking to the short side.

The technical picture has not changed a great deal but remains broadly bearish after the price has continued its general downwards movement over recent days, although the movement has been fairly light.

The key feature in the price chart below is the bearish double top rejecting the resistance level at $1.1038. Another bearish factor is that the price is still trading below the resistance level at $1.1006 which is quite confluent with the big round number just below.

Despite these bearish factors, the price seems to have found some short-term support at $1.0985 or so.

I think the best potential trade which might set up would be a short entry following a bearish rejection of the resistance level at $1.1006. This looks likely to be today’s pivotal point.

The flip side of this will be if the price gets established above that level relatively early in the London session, which would then be likely to trigger a further though probably limited rise in price.

Concerning the USD, there will be a release of JOLTS Job Openings and ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 3pm London time. There is nothing of high importance due today regarding the EUR.

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