stability of the Turkish Lira Amid Success

On the technical front, the USD/TRY stabilized during early trading this morning, as the pair traded within a limited range around the 27 level, which is the highest level the pair has ever recorded, which it reached during the current month’s trading. 

The risk is 0.50%.

• Entering a buy order pending order from the 26.50 level.
• Place a stop loss point to close below the 26.25 level.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance level at 27.50.

• Entering a sell order pending order from the 27.50 level.
• The best points to place a stop loss close to the highest level of 27.65.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support level at 26.50.

The TRY/USD maintained its stability during the early trading this morning. The pair traded near its highest levels ever, amid successive measures taken by the Turkish Central Bank to transform monetary policy, in addition to its endeavor to give some credibility to the data and economic expectations issued by the Turkish Lira.

Over the past period, the efforts of monetary policymakers in Turkey have continued to tighten monetary policy as part of plans to control inflation in the country. The Turkish Central Bank raised interest rates during the last two meetings by 900 basis points, which is a lower rate than expected, but it comes among other noticeable changes, including tightening credit card lending procedures and working to narrow the difference between the interest rate that banks get on loans and the interest rate.

The deposits paid by those banks, the Central Bank of Turkey also raised the liquidity requirements for lira deposits that are protected from foreign currency fluctuations as part of the bank’s efforts to withdraw liquidity from the large amounts of Turkish lira with commercial banks in the country. The latest updates of the Central Bank issued at the end of last week included updates of inflation expectations in the country until the end of this year, which came with an increase, as inflation estimates came at 58%, up from the level of 22.3%, according to previous estimates. The current changes indicate that the lira is approaching its lowest levels, which some international banks had previously expected, at levels of 29 liras per dollar by the end of 2023.

On the technical front, the USD/TRY stabilized during early trading this morning, as the pair traded within a limited range around the 27 level, which is the highest level the pair has ever recorded, which it reached during the current month’s trading. The pair is currently trading within a limited trading range within a general bullish trend, the price is trading below other resistance areas concentrated between the level of 27.12 and 27.50, and the pair is trading above the support levels that are concentrated at 26.50 and 26.00, respectively. The price is moving above the moving averages 50, 100, and 200 on the daily timeframe, as well as on the 4-hour and 60-minute timeframes, in a sign of the strong bullish general trend.

It is expected that the impact of the tightening by the Turkish Central Bank on the price of the lira, which analysts estimated to be around 29 liras per dollar, is expected to be delayed. Please adhere to the figures in the recommendation, while maintaining capital management.

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