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Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 31,350.
- Add a stop-loss at 29,726.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 30,100 and a take-profit at 29,720.
- Add a stop-loss at 31,500.
Bitcoin’s trading volume and volatility continued falling ahead of the upcoming American consumer inflation data. The BTC/USD price was trading at 30,400, where it has been in the past few days. This price was a few points above the important support at 29,726.
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The BTC/USD pair moved sideways as US bond yields retreated. The 10-year yield dropped to 3.98% while the 30-year and 5-year dropped to 4.02% and 4.22%, respectively. At the same time, the US dollar index (DXY) dropped by 0.24% to $101.40.
This price action happened ahead of the upcoming American consumer price index (CPI) data, which is scheduled for Wednesday. Economists believe that inflation slipped in June as the prices of most items and shipping costs fell.
The headline CPI is expected to drop from 4.0% to 3.1% while core CPI dropped to 5.0%. On a month-on-month basis, economists expect that inflation rose to 0.3%.
These numbers will come a few days after the US published soft jobs numbers. The data showed that the economy added over 209k jobs in June, lower than the median estimate of 230k jobs. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.6%.
Therefore, most analysts expect that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates later this month. In separate statements on Tuesday, Fed officials like Mary Daly, Loretta Mester, and Raphael Bostic hinted that the bank will need to hike again since inflation remains stubbornly high.
Bitcoin also moved sideways as investors wait for the next actions by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in relation to ETFs. Companies like Blackrock, Invesco, and Ark Invest have applied for their spot ETFs.
The BTC/USD price has moved sideways since June 21st. In this period, the pair has moved between the important support and resistance levels at 29,726 and 31,350, respectively.
On the 4H chart, the pair remains above the 50-period and 100-period moving averages. It has also risen above the important support at 29,825, the highest point on May 6th. The Average True Range (ATR), a good measure of volatility, has continued falling.
Therefore, the pair will likely remain in this range ahead of the upcoming US inflation data. The key levels to watch will be at 31,350 and 29,725.
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