Crude Oil Forecast: Considerable Noisy Behavior

At the end of the day, both the WTI and Brent Crude Oil markets are exhibiting signs of choppiness and are likely to continue doing so. 

• The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil market experienced an initial pullback during Thursday’s trading session, only to rebound and show signs of resilience.
• The $70 level has recently posed resistance, while the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) hovers around the $72.50 level and is on a downward trend.
• On the lower end, the $67.50 level offers support, followed by the $65 level.

The market’s choppiness is likely to persist, given several factors suggesting that we are still confined within a certain range. Additionally, the market typically enters a “summer range” as the US embarks on its “summer driving season.” Although China’s recent increase in its import quota is a bullish sign, various economic concerns could continue to impact crude oil prices.

All things considered; the market is expected to continue exhibiting choppy behavior. Therefore, traders should focus on short-term charts, as the market does not seem ready for a significant move. Traders will need to be agile when navigating this market in the coming months.

The Brent Crude Oil market showed slight positivity during Thursday’s trading session, indicating a tight range. The market is likely to continue experiencing a lot of choppiness, as two major forces currently drive the crude oil market. This should continue to be the case, and therefore you will have to be nimble.

Firstly, the global economy is heading towards a recession, raising concerns about future demand. This uncertainty casts a significant shadow over the market. On the other hand, there is a projected supply shortage due to OPEC’s ongoing supply cuts. This creates a “push/pull” dynamic that is expected to play out over the next several months. On the lower end, the $70 level serves as a robust support level, while the $77.50 level presents substantial resistance on the upper end.

At the end of the day, both the WTI and Brent Crude Oil markets are exhibiting signs of choppiness and are likely to continue doing so. Various factors, including economic concerns, demand and supply dynamics, and seasonal trends, are influencing these markets. Traders will need to focus on short-term charts and remain agile as they navigate these markets in the coming months. I think clarity is something we will be waiting for during the summertime, as the “summer range” takes over in general.

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