The Reserve Bank of Australia’s surprise interest rate hike contributed to the recent rally in the Australian dollar.
- The AUD/USD displayed further strength during Thursday’s trading session, reaching the 0.67 level. This level has historically generated significant noise and played a crucial role multiple times in the past.
- When examining the chart, it becomes apparent that the 0.67 level marks the midpoint of the broader consolidation range, with 0.66 serving as the lower boundary and 0.68 as the upper boundary.
- The recent breakdown below the lower boundary suggests a potential increase in negativity moving forward.
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The Reserve Bank of Australia’s surprise interest rate hike contributed to the recent rally in the Australian dollar. However, it remains uncertain whether this upward move will continue. Numerous negative factors weighing on the economy, and despite the unexpected rate hike, it is unlikely that bullish behavior will persist. Commodity currencies like the Australian dollar are susceptible to the concerns prevalent in the market. Consequently, a breakdown appears to be a more probable outcome.
If the Australian dollar breaks below the 0.66 level, it could pave the way for a more significant downward move towards the 0.65 level, and possibly even the 0.64 level. The 0.64 level holds particular importance as it represents the “measured move” of the previous consolidation rectangle, garnering attention from market participants.
On the upside, a breakout above the 200-Day Exponential Moving Average could open the possibility of a move toward the 0.68 level. This level had previously acted as a strong resistance point. Thus, it is crucial to closely monitor price action around this area. If the 0.68 level is breached, it is likely that the market will continue to climb higher, potentially targeting at least 0.70. Such a move would indicate a significant weakening of the US dollar. While such a scenario may not be the most likely, it is important to consider all possibilities when trading.
In the end, the Australian dollar experienced a rally but faces consolidation and negative headwinds. The 0.67 level served as a notable resistance area, and the breakdown below the lower boundary of the consolidation range suggests a more pessimistic outlook. A move towards the 0.65 and 0.64 levels becomes likely if the 0.66 level is breached. On the upside, a breakout above the 200-Day EMA could lead to further gains, with the 0.68 level serving as a key resistance point. It is essential to remain vigilant and consider both bullish and bearish scenarios when trading the Australian dollar.
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