Speculative Questions Arise as Higher Range Created

The USD/BRL broke through the 5.000 resistance level yesterday and sustained value above, opening the door for speculators to consider a new price range.

The USD/BRL closed its trading session on Tuesday near the 5.0355 level. This is a significant outcome, because the USD/BRL was able to trade above the 5.0000 level and exhibit the ability to sustain prices above this mark as the trading day came to an end. On Thursday of last week, the USD/BRL briefly climbed above the 5.0000 but was not able to remain above the important juncture.

Since the start of April this year the USD/BRL has produced a rather capable price range between the 4.9000 and 5.1000 levels.  Intriguingly upon closer inspection, the lower realms of this price range have dominated trading since May and the 4.9000 to 5.0300 ratios have largely held firm. The Brazilian Real has actually been a rather strong currency against the USD compared to many other major currencies in Forex the past month.

However, nervous sentiment is escalating in global Forex significantly the past handful of days, this as the U.S Federal Reserve’s rhetoric about more increases to the Federal Funds Rate have been taken seriously. Economic data from the U.S continues to show inflation is stubborn, and last Thursday’s FOMC Meeting Minutes report from the U.S Fed made the case for higher interest rates. The report had an effect on the USD/BRL and the currency pair’s climb was evident.

• Conservative traders should watch the first couple of hours in trading of the USD/BRL to see if the currency pair remains around the 5.0300 level today.
• If this higher ratio is sustained it may signal additional nervous buying in the USD/BRL could develop in the near-term.
• The U.S will release the Non-Farm Employment Change numbers on Friday; the jobs reports will include Average Hourly Earnings which could prove important because its data is a solid indication of inflation. 

The near-term could prove to be speculatively interesting for USD/BRL traders. Behavioral sentiment is certainly more nervous globally in Forex because of the U.S Fed’s rhetoric about continuing to fight inflation. The month of May saw a sustained lower price range for the USD/BRL which held onto the 4.9500 vicinity rather well, but if nervousness continues to escalate in financial institutions there is a reason to suspect another incremental climb higher in the currency pair could take place. If the USD/BRL sustains value above the 5.0000 today, this could be a signal that buyers remain active.

Current Resistance:  5.0470

Current Support:  5.0110

High Target: 5.0745

Low Target:  4.9860

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