1.1650 is the Next Price to Watch

The EUR/USD pair has been in a strong downward trend as the US dollar index (DXY) has jumped to the highest level since March 27th. 

• Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0650.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0760.
• Timeline: 1 day.

• Set a buy-stop at 1.0740 and a take-profit at 1.0800.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0650.

The EUR/USD pair was little changed on Monday amid low liquidity since US markets were closed for the Memorial Day weekend. The pair was hovering at 1.0712, where it ended the week. This price was the lowest level since March 21st, which was lower than the year-to-date high of 1.1095.

The EUR/USD pair has been in a strong downward trend as the US dollar index (DXY) has jumped to the highest level since March 27th. The dollar index has soared by more than 3.45% from the lowest level this year.

Traders are paying close attention to the debt ceiling deal that was reached during the weekend. Democrats and Republicans are debating on whether to pass the bill this week. While some extreme Republicans and Democrats will not pass the bill, analysts believe that it will pass this week. The bill will remove one of the biggest risks that has clouded the market recently.

Meanwhile, there is a likelihood that the Federal Reserve will deliver another rate hike in June this year since inflation remains at an elevated level. PCE data published last Friday revealed that inflation rose to 4.7% in March, higher than what analysts were expecting.

The US will publish the closely-watched consumer confidence figure later on Tuesday. Economists believe that confidence among consumers moved below 100 this month amid heightened inflation concerns.

The other key EUR/USD news is the political uncertainty in Spain, where the prime minister called for a snap election in July. This election will likely affect the country’s growth as Europe re-emerges from the pandemic and as the war in Ukraine continues.

The EUR/USD pair has been in a bearish trend in the past few weeks. On the 4H chart, it has dropped below the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level. The pair’s decline is being supported by the 25-period and 50-period moving averages. It has also dropped below the important support level at 1.0760, the lowest level on May 19.

Meanwhile, the MACD has formed a bullish divergence pattern that is shown in black. Therefore, while the overall outlook is bearish, a short pullback to 1.0760 cannot be ruled out. A break below the support at 1.0700 will open the possibility of it moving to the 78.6% retracement point at 1.0650.

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