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Unclear if price has much room to fall.
My last signal on 11th May was not triggered as there was no bullish price action when the price reached any of the support levels which I had identified.
Risk 0.75%
Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6705, $0.6748, or $0.6767.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6637, $0.6620, or $0.6593.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
I wrote in my previous forecast that the AUD/USD currency pair was making a strong case to be bullish, so I was seeking long trade entries from any firm bullish bounce at either $0.6768 or $0.6744.
This was a bad call insofar as the price made a strong down day. Fortunately, there were no bullish bounces when either of these support levels were reached.
The technical picture now is more bearish over both the short-term and the medium-term. We see the price a few hours ago rejected an area of resistance just above the round number at $0.6700 and seems to be falling from there with impulsive momentum. This suggests that the price is most likely to move down, but there may be minor support levels at $0.6675 and $0.6665 which have recently been inflective.
Despite the more bearish picture, it is notable when a great rounded bottom we saw the bulls put in at the support level of $0.6637 last week.
I think the price is likely to chop around today, and probably will not even reach any of my key support or resistance levels. However, the best opportunity which might set up today would probably be a long trade following another bullish bounce at $0.6637.
Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Retail Sales data at 1:30pm London time. There is nothing of high importance scheduled today regarding the AUD.
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