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The Bulls are Still in Control

Yesterday, it was announced that producer prices fell in Spain in March for the first time since late 2020 due to the noticeable decline in energy prices.

Since the start of this week’s trading, the price of the euro currency pair against the US dollar, EUR/USD, tried to maintain its gains above the psychological resistance of 1.1000. Its gains extended to the resistance level of 1.1067, then returned amid profit-taking sales, which mentioned a lot about the possibility of its occurrence at any time, to the level of 1.0960, which is stable around it at the time.


So far, the general trend is still bullish, and the recent gains of the US dollar came amid renewed fears of China, which increased the purchase of the US dollar as a safe haven. Recently, the price of the euro against the rest of the other major currencies gained positive momentum amid strong signals from European Central Bank officials for the future of tightening its policy. Therefore, investors ignored the lower numbers of economic data from the Eurozone.

Yesterday, it was announced that producer prices fell in Spain in March for the first time since late 2020 due to the noticeable decline in energy prices. According to the announcer, producer prices unexpectedly decreased by 1.0 percent on an annual basis, after rising by 8.0 percent in February. This was the first decline since December 2020, when prices fell 1.4 percent. Economists had expected prices to rise by 2.8%.

Producer price inflation peaked at 47.0% in March 2022 after the war in Ukraine drove up energy prices. The annual decline in producer prices is attributed to the decline in energy prices by 15.9 percent. Meanwhile, prices of consumer goods recorded an increase of 12.7 percent and prices of capital goods increased by 4.2 percent. Intermediate commodity prices rose 3.5 percent.

Excluding energy, Spanish producer price inflation slowed to 7.3% in March from 9.5% in the previous month. On a monthly basis, overall producer prices fell 2.2 percent after rising 2.3 percent in February, the first increase in five months. Overall, multiple concerns continue to trickle in about China’s economic outlook such as insufficient growth in the labor force, a shift in Chinese policy toward security at the expense of growth, trade tensions with the US, excessive debt, and an imbalanced domestic real estate sector.

Yesterday, stock prices fell 1.7% in Hong Kong, 1.6% in Taiwan, 1.4% in South Korea, and 0.8% in Singapore. The Shanghai Composite fell just 0.3%, and Japan’s Nikkei closed up 0.1%. European stocks are down so far, especially in Spain (-1.3%) and Italy (-0.9%).

Global economic growth concerns have weighed on commodities and cryptocurrencies. Accordingly, prices fell by 0.7% for oil, by 0.4% in the case of the gold price, and by 0.3% for bitcoin. Meanwhile, 10-year sovereign debt yields are down six basis points in Germany and France, five basis points in Spain, Italy, Great Britain, and the United States, but are higher in Japan.

  • The continuation of the movement of the price of the EUR/USD currency pair around and above the psychological resistance of 1.1000, will remain supportive of the bullish trend and increase the chances of bulls for more control.
  • The positive momentum of the EUR/USD to move towards the resistance levels 1.1075 and 1.1120 continued, respectively, which is sufficient to push the technical indicators towards saturation levels.
  • Buy as is the performance on the daily chart below.

On the other hand, over the same time period, it will be important to move toward the support levels 1.0920 and 1.0880 to reflect the pair’s current view. The EUR/USD will be affected today by the release of the German Consumer Sentiment and the release of the US Durable Goods Orders, as well as any signals from central bank officials about the future of tightening or not.


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