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Conditions are strongly rangebound, despite channel.
My last signal on 4th April was not triggered as unfortunately the bullish price action took place a little way below $0.6726.
Risk 0.75%
Trades must be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6753, $0.6780, or $0.6800. The upper trend line of the price channel could also be valid as mobile resistance.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6678, $0.6644, or $0.6623.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
I wrote in my previous forecast that the AUD/USD currency pair was likely to continue falling, but the support level at $0.6726 looked likely to be strong so I was happy to look for a long trade there.
This was a pretty good call as although the bullish bounce was a few pips lower, this marked the approximate low of the day.
The technical picture now is more settled. The price has been moving sideways on declining volatility for several days now, so suffice to say conditions are rangebound without much significant directional movement.
This suggests that the best strategy here will be likely to be no directional bias, just entering upon any convincing reversals from any extreme which is reached.
The only notable technical feature on the price chart is the symmetrical bearish price channel, with the upper trend line making its pressure felt – this can be seen within the price chart below. This trend line may give a short trade entry opportunity.
I will be happy to enter a new long trade if we get a bullish bounce at $0.6678 today, or a new short trade from a bearish bounce at $0.6753.
There are other currency pairs which are probably going to be better to trade today than this one, such as NZD/USD.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding the AUD. Concerning the USD, there will be a release of Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time.
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