Stops Falling at the 200-Day EMA

In summary, while the gold markets remain relatively quiet, the current confusion among traders regarding monetary policy, coupled with central banks’ continued buying of gold, indicates a steady demand for the commodity. 

• The Gold markets have remained relatively subdued during Wednesday’s trading session, reflecting the confusion among traders regarding monetary policy.
• While Jerome Powell has suggested that the US may have to increase interest rates rapidly, many traders still hold onto the hope that the Federal Reserve will adopt a dovish stance, a narrative that continues to prevail in the market psyche.

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Despite the uncertainty, it’s important to note that central banks around the world continue to buy gold, indicating a steady demand for the commodity. Currently, the market is situated between the 50-Day EMA and the 200-Day EMA, which typically generates a significant amount of noise. Additionally, there has been considerable choppiness around the $1800 level in the past, which is located just below the 200-Day EMA. Consequently, even though the market saw a substantial selloff on Tuesday, it’s unlikely that there will be immediate follow-through.

It’s worth mentioning that Jerome Powell is speaking in front of Congress for the second day in a row, and given his track record, he may inadvertently provide traders with the hope they need to start the next narrative. While I believe that the US dollar will continue to remain strong from a long-term standpoint, traders are likely to experience a temporary reprieve in the short term as they cling to the idea of a dovish Federal Reserve.

If the market breaks down below the $1800 level, the next target could be $1750, followed by a further move down to the $1700 level. The 50-Day EMA, which is a significant resistance level, is situated near the $1850 level. A break above this level could lead to a run to the $1900 level, although it’s important to note that this level has previously encountered significant selling pressure.

In summary, while the gold markets remain relatively quiet, the current confusion among traders regarding monetary policy, coupled with central banks’ continued buying of gold, indicates a steady demand for the commodity. While there may be short-term fluctuations, the longer-term outlook for the market remains positive. With this being the case, I think you need to be very cautious with your position size because you could get run over if you are not careful. Nonetheless, pay attention to the US dollar, it can have a major influence, just as the yields in US bonds can.

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