$1.06 Handle Continues to Hold

Your easiest trade is going to be following where the momentum takes you.

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The Euro has plunged against the US Dollar during the trading session on Wednesday as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. Alternatively, this is a market that I think continues to see trouble, as the US dollar has been strengthening on and off for a while. Given enough time, I do think that we plunged below the 50-Day EMA, but the question then becomes whether or not we can reach the 200-Day EMA? That is an area that obviously will attract a lot of attention, but at the end of the day I think we’ve got a situation where a lot of risk appetite is being taken out of the market, so if that’s going to continue to be the case, it’s likely that we will see the US dollar strengthened.

Selling Pressure at Higher Levels

If we do rally from here, I suspect that it is probably only for a short-term bounce. The recent action has certainly suggested that we are going to continue to see sellers above, and I think that it is only a matter of time before they get their way. Inflation numbers of the United States have been quite strong, and that will typically have a strengthening effect on the currency. The market has been bouncing around for a while, so I do think that it’s probably only a matter of time before we have to break in one direction or the other. If that’s the case, I think your easiest trade is going to be following where the momentum takes you. That being said, if we break above the 1.08 level, it would be a very bullish sign that could send this market to the 1.10 level above where we had seen a lot of selling pressure. That area I think would be very difficult to get above, but if we did then you would obviously have quite a bit of momentum.

• On the other hand, if we break down below the 50-Day EMA, I do think that it is more likely than not we would see the 200-Day EMA be a target.
• Anything below there would open up a huge trend change and could send this market to much lower levels.
• That would almost certainly coincide with a general “risk off” type of behavior, and therefore one would have to look at it across the board and see whether or not we continue seeing US dollar strength everywhere.

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